Wind predictions using the MM5/MC2 models

bwd · Post by **bwd** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 12:20 pm

Are you tired of squinting at the MM5/MC2 models to try and figure out when to schedule your sick days? Well let BWD help. A new addition to the website can be found on the <a href="/http://bigwavedave.ca/forecasts.htm" target="_self">forecasts</a> page.

Basically a program loads the MM5 model pages, figures out the colours at the sailing sites, gets the windspeed from the colours and gets the direction from the wind vanes. The predictions are given for 3 days - today, tomorrow and the day after. The MM5 model updates 2x per day so look for updates between 8am and noon, then again around 8pm until midnight.

The usual disclaimers apply - this is only experimental so it's best to look at the models and decide for yourself (or look out the window). These are only models and are just estimates. The today and tomorrow estimates will be more accurate then the 3 day outlook. The 3 day outlook uses the 12km grid MM5 model and it's very hard to pick out the sailing sites so don't expect it to be super accurate.

I still have some stuff to do:

- add predictions based on the MC2 model. Right now I only look at the MM5, maybe I'll add the MC2 for the SE direction.

- verify the predictions and the model agree. I'll need your help - if something doesn't look right then let me know. It's just experimental right now and I may have to tweak the sailing site locations a bit and there may be bugs still.

- maybe add some other sailing sites - suggestions?

Any comments or suggestions are welcome,
dave

more force 4 · Post by **more force 4** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 12:28 pm

You (and Russian Dood too) are unREAL! How do you find time to sail too? This site never ceases to amaze!

I just went in and looked a second time, found the buttons for the days ahead - this is by far the best addition to the site since the beginning - although the sailing log is pretty sweet and the new cameras are awesome. SImply GUSH - able!

Alex · Post by **Alex** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 12:31 pm

BWD for man of the year!

That's a sweet quick reference without loading up the models.

Thanks again.

~ pimp hand ~ · Post by **~ pimp hand ~** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 12:44 pm

very nice dave! [smilie=beer.gif]

Bobson · Post by **Bobson** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 1:09 pm

Okay, how cool are you DOOD!!! Pretty flippin Cool

If it is even close to accurate then YOU DA MAN!!!

That is sooooo easy for us un-wind-smart-dudes....

DAVE, DAVE, DAVE, DAVE, DAVE, DOOOOOOOOD!!!

Yes, I am pretty excited about this little fun toy!!

Thanks Dave. Not bad for a RDD - Reduced Dianmeter Dude!!

bean · Post by **bean** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 1:54 pm

What's next? Will this site get up, load my gear, make me an omlette and pack me a lunch when it's windy?!?!

Fantastic work Dave, as always!

bricktop · Post by **bricktop** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 2:33 pm

Sweet!!!!

more force 4 · Post by **more force 4** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 3:27 pm

Cummon, Bean a web site isn't going to pack your gear. Sheesh, lets keep it real! Actually, Dave, what should be possible is for you to figure out how to link the forecast conditions to my Outlook calendar and automatically reschedule any appointments that conflict with the wind. That way I can also have the computer give me a 2-hour reminder that the wind is scheduled (for local sites only, of course).

PS Please don't take this seriously, you HTML overachiever!

winddoctor · Post by **winddoctor** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 5:00 pm

Dave, one day your signature may read "skunk free since 2005". Nice work!

Yet another reason to pony up sum bucks for this great site! C'mon! Help a brotha out! Kindly donate to keep this site rolling if you haven't already.

Kite Kook · Post by **Kite Kook** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 5:39 pm

Niiiiice!

This is a fantastic feature! Hopefully we who scrutinize can help you eliminate any bugs, and also donate the cash to keep this going!

Thanks (again) for the great work!

Paul

Kite Kook · Post by **Kite Kook** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:06 pm

Ya know, as technololgy improves, it means job losses. Does this mean, after all his tireless work, that JL has been outsourced to a computer program?

~ pimp hand ~ · Post by **~ pimp hand ~** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:30 pm

Kook St. Kite Kook wrote:Ya know, as technololgy improves, it means job losses. Does this mean, after all his tireless work, that JL has been outsourced to a computer program?

it kinda looks that way don't it

... JL should be behind the kite lines or ferry wheel rather than a computer screen anyhow

JL · Post by JL » Thu Mar 24, 2005 7:30 pm

Thats right ph!!! Looking forward to that new t-shirt! Nice work on the site (again) Dave. Maybe you could add amber to sse @ I view as a reminder that it's questionable!

~ pimp hand ~ · Post by **~ pimp hand ~** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 7:46 am

hey dave ... is it really necessary to have jr included? ... after all, it only blows there a couple times a year(unless your thinking of the elusive east/southeast?) ... why not let people do their homework on that one ... besides gordon's is close enough to give somewhat of an estimate ... just a thought

peace_out

bwd · Post by **bwd** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 9:15 am

Thanks for the comments everyone. Haha Bobson - RDD i like that (as long as I stick to my diet).

Just remember everyone - this is just a quick way of looking at the results from the MM5 model. We have seen the MM5 be deadly accurate and also dead wrong in the past (sometimes it completely misses westerlies). So use it as an extra feature to the site and make sure you still use the EC/NOAA forecasts and all of the other resources etc. And I can't say this enough - the 3 day outlook is based on the <a href="/http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/r ... 7.0000.gif" target="_blank">12km grid model</a> and the estimates will be very sketchy - as you can see from the plot it is hard to pick out the individual sites, so the wind speeds and especially the directions will be questionable.

I'm not sure about removing JR - again these are just estimates and I doubt we are giving away any secret information here. If there is a huge group that are outraged by it I guess I could change the name to "Secret Spot". The JR spot is more of a "west of Gordon's" spot and it definetly won't predict winds exactly at JR, of course. Maybe others can comment, I do appreciate the suggestion and the above is just my point of view.

Wind predictions using the MM5/MC2 models

Wind predictions using the MM5/MC2 models

Cool...

Thanks for the comments

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