El Nino / La nina / Neutral

[JL]

Synopsis: La Niña is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance during January-March), with a potential transition to ENSO-neutral during the spring 2021 (55% chance during April-June). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[more force 4]

So JL where is all the cold weather we are supposed to be getting??

[JL]

Lets just call la Nina "the windy Bitch" and forget about the models. That's not to say we won't experience a few Arctic Outflow events

[AJSpencer]

Like next weekend!

[JL]

As we experience an Arctic outflow here is the Spring advisory of ENSO neutral: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[JL]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml Please note the 2 models below:

[AJSpencer]

Well, hopefully a warm and wet Spring with limited forest fire activity this Summer. Doesn't sound good for the Westerlies though!
In Summer, are El Nino years generally big evening Westerlies/heat, and La Nina cooler/wetter with mild SEs and alternating Ws? Or is it not that simple to generalize like that?

[JL]

Let's hope for lots of local high pressure and afternoon thermals. Friday afternoon looks good.

[JL]

A transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral is likely in the next month or so, with an 80% chance of ENSO-neutral during May-July 2021. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[Bobson]

Ok JL, can you give me a dumbed-down version of what the forecast is saying. My friend had a dog named Enzo.

[JL]

Bobson I suspect your friend Is/was a Ferrari fan. Cliff Mass my oft. quoted Seattle meteorologist prof. says that spring is subject to a "spring forecast barrier" so stay tuned.

[JL]

La Niña has ended, with ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (67% chance in June-August 2021). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[JL]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[JL]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml " ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January). "

[JL]

"So let me get to the punch line. During La Nina years, the Northwest tends to be cooler and wetter than normal. Typically more snowpack in the mountains. And increased chances of lowland snow. " (Cliff Mass) https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/08/ ... yHNu6CcwX4