VANCOUVER ISLAND WINDTALK

A few of us were planning to go to Nitinaht this week, starting Tuesday the 12th. Clouds are in the forecast and I'm wondering what this means for wind.

The forecast is for a temperature gradient from around 17 to 19 in Tofino and 24 or 25 in Port Alberni for the rest of the week.

Is this enough of a gradient for the thermal to come up at the lake, even though it is forecast to be cloudy for the week with some possibility of precip?

Advice appreciated.

Thanks.

Don C.

There's a good chance it will still be windy as the forecast is just weakened high pressure but it isn't going to be anything great most likely, maybe 10-12 knots.

Thanks nanmoo. 10 or 12 knots would be just perfect for some of us. 5 of us have foil boards and light wind is good for practice.

Anyone else want to chime in on the probability of higher velocity for those of the group who don't have light air equipment? Would it be worth coming over from Vancouver, or do you think it would be just a sitting on the beach trip for the week?

the clouds and possible showers aren't good but the temperature difference between PA and Tofino is substantial (13-15 verses 31 24 28 27). To make it harder to predict they are talking about thunderstorms which are unstable and not good to be on the water. Based on the temperature difference which has worked in the past for me, I think I would go if I couldn't postpone. Thunderstorms usually pass and 13-15 is pretty cold.

You might find this useful.

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display ... nwn_precip

The temperature differential between PA and Tofino is only an indicator that it may be windy. Today (Monday) the temperature differential is 11 C (PA=36C and Tofino=25 C). I don't know at this point but I doub't if it was very windy at Nitinat. The surface flow is weakly offshore (Carmanah Pt was E@16 kts at 4pm) and PA was weakly inflowing (11 kts).

If I had to guess I would say it will blow 12-16 every day except Wednesday which will be a little lighter. But who knows ...

Thanks for the info. Sounds like we should at least get wind on a few days. I'm off to pack the camper, and will put in my foil board and 19 meter. That should ensure heavy wind

check the temps in bamfield or renfrew (way closer to the lake than tofino)vs port alberni. if there is a 10 deg. difference your good to go! anything less is questionable

The trick is not so much making a decision based on what it *is* as much as what it might be! Planning 2-5 days ahead is the challenge.

The real temperature and the one in the Sunday forecast were not close. Yesterday (Tuesday) PA was at about 20C rather than the forecast 25-28C. I haven't seen reports for Nitinat for Tuesday but there wasn't much to generate a thermal. Same goes for today (Wednesday) - the forecast was for 25C but, at noon it was 19C.

[BTW, the EC page:
http://weather.gc.ca/forecast/canada/index_e.html?id=BC
does not have a current conditions/ forecast for Port Renfrew or Bamfield.]

Check the adiabatic lapse rate for Duncan and Fino

Hey ToesideT; Where or how does one retrieve such information? I've read about it and like it, but don't see data available. Thanks.

The dry adiabatic lapse rate is 9.8C/km for both places!

I was at Nitinaht from Tuesday night last week to Sunday afternoon. Apparently Tuesday was good, but I arrived after dark.

Wednesday and Thursday were 100% cloudy with showers, even rain sometimes, but, we kited both days in light wind, 8 to 12 knots on Wed. and about 12 to 16 on Thursday. Perfect foil board practice weather which was good for the novices in the group.

Friday started off cloudy and we had more light wind kiting, but it cleared in the afternoon and we were on 7 meter kites.

Saturday and Sunday were normal Nitinaht wind days. 6 and 7 meter kites with the foil boards. We rode a few km to windward, as far you can see past the point until the wind became really light. Great touring trip.

Had some good air time afternoon sessions trying some hang time, back rolls, back rolls with kite loop, front rolls etc. while trying to land and sail away up on the foil.

REALLY glad we went even with the sketchy forecast! We were able to try 4 different foil manufacturers and compare performance. Awesome trip. Nitinaht is such a cool place to ride.