VANCOUVER ISLAND WINDTALK

Well, we're used to the EC crying wolf all the time over gales that don't materialize. Today was the complete opposite:

I’m not sure what was forecast in the earlier morning, last night I don’t recall even any gale warning. Are the EC forecasts archived somewhere? Jl?

[edit, thanks Jl, this is the US forecast for last night - Strait didn't even rate a small craft warning:
MARINE...SMALL ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT CENTRAL STRAIT.

This was EC forecast at 10:30
Marine forecasts for Pacific waters issued by Environment Canada at
10:30 a.m. PST Monday 29 December 2008 for today tonight and Tuesday.
The next scheduled forecasts will be issued at 4:00 p.m.

Juan de Fuca Strait - east entrance.
Gale warning in effect.
Wind westerly 30 to 35 knots diminishing to southwest 20 to 25 this
evening then backing to southeast 20 late overnight. Wind increasing
to southeast 30 to 40 Tuesday afternoon. Rain ending this evening.
Rain beginning near noon Tuesday. Visibility 1 mile or less in rain.

And from the US at 10:35, they didn’t get it either:
THE MM5NAM/MM5GFS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH
OF WINDS. GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS POINTING TOWARD A
DEEPENING SYSTEM...THE NAM SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. THIS MODEL SHOWS A
SOLID WLY SURGE DOWN THE STRAIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH 35 KT EXTENDING
ALONG THE ERN STRAIT INTO WHIDBEY ISLAND.

This was at noon, closing the barn door after the horse escaped:

Updated marine forecasts for Pacific waters issued by Environment
Canada at 12:07 p.m. PST Monday 29 December 2008 for today tonight
and Tuesday.

Juan de Fuca Strait - east entrance.
Storm warning in effect.
Wind west 40 to 50 knots diminishing to westerly 30 to 35 early this
afternoon and to southwest 20 to 25 early this evening. Wind backing
to southeast 20 late overnight then increasing to 30 to 40 Tuesday
afternoon. Rain ending this evening. Rain beginning near noon
Tuesday. Visibility 1 mile or less in rain.

Winds at Ogden Point from 10AM through 1 PM. Look at the spike between 11:30 and 11:50!

29-Dec-2008 13:10:00 W 43 55
29-Dec-2008 13:00:00 WSW 39 50
29-Dec-2008 12:50:00 WSW 44 60
29-Dec-2008 12:40:00 WSW 43 56
29-Dec-2008 12:30:00 WSW 38 47
29-Dec-2008 12:20:00 SW 39 56
29-Dec-2008 12:10:00 SW 38 48
29-Dec-2008 12:00:00 SW 38 47
29-Dec-2008 11:50:00 SW 37 53
29-Dec-2008 11:40:00 SSW 28 42
29-Dec-2008 11:30:00 S 14 21
29-Dec-2008 11:20:00 S 08 12
29-Dec-2008 11:10:00 S 07 10
29-Dec-2008 11:00:00 SE 04 06
29-Dec-2008 10:50:00 ESE 02 04
29-Dec-2008 10:40:00 ESE 03 06
29-Dec-2008 10:30:00 ESE 05 09
29-Dec-2008 10:20:00 ESE 04 08
29-Dec-2008 10:10:00 E 01 03

NOAA has a link to 'previous forecasts' on there interactive site: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/gafd/latest_webafd.html

Nice to let me know after i head out fishing that we are going to get our buts kicked. Part of the fun i guess OF WINTER FISHING".
Cheers.
See you at Island View on New Years.

Looking fwd. to that Crab AC ...

Give them a break guys... They lost their favorite tossing coin and all 3 coop students that used to work on predicting local weather are not with them any more.... It is a sure sigh of global crisis

Why not go outside or better, to the beach - forcasts = possibility, not reality.... (Unless windsurfing the net counts?)

That was a timely comment WSF! THe point was it was very lucky noone died in that storm, as there were people out in small boats and the forecast was for 15-20 knots; so they did not suspect what was coming. We're so used to EC crying wolf that its almost as shock when they completely miss a real one. Did you see the TV coverage of the rescue that AirCrab was involved in? It does reinforce that there are always unforseeable risks in doing any water activity; sometimes sh1t happens and you have to be ready to deal with it.